Canada’s oil industry could win big in hard-fought election

The future of Canada’s oil and gas industry – a major employer in the country and particularly in the oil-rich province of Alberta – hangs in the balance in Monday’s federal election, in which climate change is a key issue. key theme alongside the impacts of the pandemic on Canada’s economy. The early election, which Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called in hopes of capitalizing on his handling of the COVID emergency, is too close to be called, polls showed a day before the vote.

As climate change increasingly takes center stage with each election among major Western oil and gas producers, as it has in Norway earlier this month, the stakes for Canada’s energy industry are high.

If voters choose more of the same, giving Trudeau a victory, another Liberal-led government would demand tougher federal oil and gas rules to cut emissions, while new pipeline projects likely won’t. supported. But if the Conservatives win, Canada’s oil industry could be boosted by a pro-oil federal government. Shares of major energy companies would also benefit from a Tory victory and could be set for a rally of relief, Bloomberg News’ Michael Bellusci Remarks.

As the Canadians head to the polls on September 20, the race is too close to be announced. a Ipsos survey September 19 called for “a photo finish,” with the Conservatives expected to win 32 percent and the Liberals 31 percent. The election could be a repeat of “the landslide victory of the popular vote in 2019,” according to Ipsos.

“However, this time around, the Conservatives are earning less on the Prairies and are helped by the NDP which takes votes away from the Liberals in Ontario. This, combined with a base that seems excited to vote for O’Toole and his party, could make a very long night on Monday as the nation awaits the results of close races in British Columbia, ”wrote Darrell Bricker, global CEO of Public. Business, at Ipsos.

Trudeau Liberals commit to their Platform reduce emissions from the oil and gas sector, forcing oil and gas companies to set five-year targets starting in 2025 and reducing methane emissions by at least 75% from 2012 levels by 2030.

“If done right, it could be important – but we’ve heard big rhetoric from this party before,” said Caroline Brouillette, head of national policies at the Climate Action Network Canada. Reuters last week, commenting on the Liberals’ agenda on oil and gas emissions.

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole noted last month, that if elected, the Conservatives would reduce Trudeau’s latest national emissions reduction target to the previous target of a 30 percent reduction below 2005 levels by 2030. In April of this year, the Trudeau government raised the emission reduction target for 2030 to 40-45 percent, reiterating a target of net zero by 2050.

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O’Toole pledged climate action, although not as ambitious as Trudeau’s, but he also said that if elected, the Conservatives would support pipeline projects that would boost Canada’s exports and its oil industry and gas.

“We have to make sure that democratic countries use Canadian resources, not the resources of Saudi Arabia, Venezuela or Russia,” O’Toole said in an interview with Radio-Canada in August.

“This will be our approach to access tidal waters,” he added.

“Unlike Justin Trudeau, who wants to phase out the sector and its jobs, we will support the energy sector as an essential part of our economy,” the Conservatives say in their Platform.

Their plan for the energy sector includes ensuring adequate pipeline capacity by building Trans Mountain and ensuring Line 3 and 5 continue to operate, implementing a federal export strategy. LNG and the passage of a law on the protection of critical infrastructure to prevent protesters from blocking key infrastructure. The Conservatives will also support the offshore petroleum industry in Newfoundland and Labrador and introduce a tax credit to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) technology in the oil industry. energy and in major industries that have few alternatives to burning fossil fuels, such as the production of fertilizers and chemicals.

Investors are watching elections in Canada because the oil and gas sector potentially has a lot to gain if the Tories win, while another Liberal government could mean the industry will have to keep fighting for kidnapping capacity pipelines.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for OilUSD

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