Crude oil prices torn between supply fears and grim market mood



  • Crude oil prices slow as rally struggles to extend past four-month highs
  • Concerns related to the reduction in supply are counterbalanced by a generally risk-free environment
  • US PCE inflation and the ISM manufacturing survey in the spotlight ahead

Crude Oil Price wavered sharply but ultimately failed to find a sustainable directional lead on Thursday amid conflicting influences. Persistent fears of shortage of supply – an increasing influence – encountered a risk-free backdrop widely felt across all cyclical assets.

Looking ahead, August’s US PCE inflation data and September’s ISM manufacturing survey focus on the data front. The Fed’s preferred price growth indicator is expected to put core inflation at 3.5%, down a hair’s breadth of the 30-year high of 3.6% the month before.

Meanwhile, the overall ISM figure drops from 59.9 to 59.6, suggesting growth may level off after a decline in the second quarter. Overall, this data seems unlikely to change the disposition of traders in any way, barring a dramatic surprise. It could lead to another hectic but directionless day.


Crude oil prices are slowing down to a three-year resistance just below the $ 77 / bbl figure. An upside breakout could expose the $ 80 / bbl threshold. A daily close below 72.17 seems necessary for sellers to reverse the trend. Support levels at 69.36 and 66.35 follow next.

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView


— Written by Ilya Spivak, Chief Strategist, APAC for DailyFX

To contact Ilya use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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