Geopolitical risks to watch this winter


A single attack on oil at this point could push prices up to $90, but that will depend on where it is. Markets will weigh more heavily on some geopolitical sentiments than others. And there’s plenty to choose from right now, from the escalation in Ukraine and Russia and the very quickly quashed uprising in Kazakhstan to the long-running Libyan conflict and the ever-present threat of Houthi missile attacks. on Aramco’s Saudi oil facilities.

What would push the oil price needle to $90 right now would likely be a clear Russian move on Ukraine (not just a threatening and ambiguous border deployment), or a serious attack on Saudi Aramco.

Libya: instability already integrated

In Libya, where the December 24 presidential elections have been postponed, markets reacted mildly to the shutdowns of the country’s largest oilfield in mid-December, despite the fact that the blockage was caused by a clash between factions powerful revealing a conflict that has never been resolved and could at any time return to a state of civil war. The latest proposal is to hold elections at the end of January but to start with parliamentary polls and conclude with presidential elections (the opposite of the initial plan). As maneuvers for control of Libya’s oil and revenue continue to escalate until elections are held, we expect further political breakdowns. Although these blackouts move the oil price needle, the impact will not be…

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