Two lots of heavy rain will move over Lower Michigan between this Friday afternoon and sunrise Saturday. The second rain wave could have a few severe segments producing irregular destructive winds or an isolated tornado.
Here’s a look at the big picture of the rain and thunderstorm batches targeting Michigan. These areas of rain will move to the southeast.
The second area has a main line of heavy thunderstorms followed by a large area of moderate to heavy rain.
This second line appears to be moving faster than a late evening arrival for the extreme southeast of Lower. Here are the latest radar forecasts from a model that operates every hour.
This model systematically wants to develop a third line of thunderstorms in the middle of the night. This will be difficult to do if rain and thunderstorms in Wisconsin at noon Friday pass through Michigan in the late afternoon and evening.
Regardless of the exact time, some areas will end up with a lot of rain. This morning, parts of the Detroit area have already received three inches of rain in just three hours.
Here is an additional total rainfall forecast for this afternoon through tonight.
Do not look at the exact location of the heaviest or lightest rain. Just be aware that it is possible for areas under the strongest thunderstorms to receive up to an additional four inches of rain. I think one to two inches of rain is going to be quite common.
As the MLive.com Facebook page and allow notifications. If we need to switch to continuous severe weather coverage, we will do so on the Facebook page. Severe weather will most likely be from 6 p.m. to midnight tonight.